In the second world war and the Cold War, perceived encroachments by strategic competitors led to a “strategy of denial”. The constant in Australia’s geostrategic view of the Pacific is that the region is viewed simultaneously as both a buffer and a potential location of threats. These agreements were widely seen as strategic threats that could lead to military bases and/or spying arrangements, but nothing significant ever came from them.Īid to PNG and the Pacific should focus on fixing cities This threat was later discredited, but the legacy of this fear of invasion from foreign powers lingers to this day.ĭuring the height of the Cold War, Soviet fishing agreements with Pacific countries were also perceived to be a threat to Australian interests. During the second world war, Japan was widely believed to have been poised to invade Australia from bases in the Pacific islands. There is a long history of alarmism in Australia over the activities of strategic competitors in the Pacific. Suffice it to say, this form of leveraging takes influence to a different level. The implication of the new “debt-book diplomacy” in the Harvard report is that China is using unsustainable loans to gain influence with Pacific island states that aren’t able to repay them. Therefore, a thorough analysis of the dynamics in the region is needed to fully understand China’s motivations, and what can be done to avoid conflict.Ĭhina has long been accused of using “chequebook diplomacy” to gain favour with nations around the world. The “Thucydides’s Trap” in the title relates to whether the US as a hegemonic power can accommodate China’s rise without resorting to war.īut this so-called trap does not necessarily point to historical inevitability. Interestingly, the students were supervised by Professor Graham Allison, who wrote the book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?. A classified version of it was allegedly produced for the US Pacific Command last year, but the version leaked to the Australian Financial Review was written by graduate students, purportedly for the US State Department. The latest report by the Harvard researchers comes with interesting context. Response to rumours of a Chinese military base in Vanuatu speaks volumes about Australian foreign policy Last month, another media report emerged saying China had approached Vanuatu about building a permanent military presence in the South Pacific – an assertion Vanuatu quickly shot down. The story follows a well-trodden path from speculation to suspicion to alarm. The Australian Financial Review quoted the report as saying that while Papua New Guinea in particular has “historically been in Australia’s orbit”, it’s been “rapidly taking on Chinese loans it can’t afford to pay and offers a strategic location in addition to significant LNG and resource deposits” for China. The crux of the report is that Pacific island states like Vanuatu and Tonga, as well as other nations in Southeast Asia, are at risk of undue influence from China due to unsustainable loans they’ve received for infrastructure projects. Talk of Chinese “debt trap” diplomacy is nothing new, but a recent report by Harvard University researchers has resurrected long-held fears that China’s debt diplomacy poses a threat to Australian interests in the Pacific.
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